It can mean long hours of tediously entering data, sorting spreadsheets, setting up databases, testing, re-testing and re-re-testing. There are, of course, occasions when you might have multiple edges on different games, all taking place at…Below is the formula used to calculate the Kelly Criterion stake size. 4. There are 7 7 black jelly beans, 2 2 blue jelly beans, and 1 1 red jelly bean. Disclosure. 67, which is all that’s needed to use the Kelly formula: 75% - 25%/0. 4)/1 = 20% or 0. BL – the biggest loss in a series is always a negative value. (Kelly Criterion) I was wondering about the real-world use of the Kelly Criterion in relation to Cash Secured Puts. B = the Decimal odds -1 P = the probability of success Q = the probability of failure (i. Unsurprisingly, the volatility or variance in the evolution of the bankroll is greatest for full-Kelly and least for eighth-Kelly. 5% and Ralph Vince Optimal f = 0. Enter the Kelly Criterion. The kelly criterion is a formula used to bet a preset fraction of an account. This is because, with Kelly, you risk it all when you have a streak of losses, while with the formula, you only risk a fraction of it. If you have no edge, the optimal bet size would be 0. It takes into account your win probability and the odds being offered by the sportsbook, and provides a recommendation for the optimal bet size based on your bankroll size. It uses the perceived win/loss probabilities combined with the price of the bet to determine value in the market. The most common form of value betting calculator. Kelly, Jr in 1956. 00. 1, Optimization of Kelly criterion portfolios for discrete return distributions. Executive Director, Quant Manager, Electronic Rates Trading, Oxford Graduate, Board Member, Author, Pilot 2d Edited EditedFigure 2: Capital Through 5000 Bets: Betting with the Kelly Criterion vs. The answer is that the formula commonly known as the Kelly Criterion is not the real Kelly Criterion - it is a simplified form that works when there is only one bet at a time. If you have no edge, the optimal bet size would be 0. Utilizziamo il file KELLY CRITERION EXCEL EVOLUTION 2. I am always puzzled about the kelly or other methods. One thing that complicates the matter is that short term results can. This is the formula. Kelly. Other formulas, such as the fixed fraction, fixed ratio, and optimal f formulas, can be used depending on your. Because we give SUMIFS two values for criteria, it returns two results. Kelly, Jr. Unsurprisingly, the volatility or variance in the evolution of the bankroll is greatest for full-Kelly and least for eighth-Kelly. It’s free and easy to use. However, unlike in the previous situation we examined the Kelly Criterion for, there is not a nite number of outcomes of a bet on a security, so, we will useIf everytime we trade we force ourselves to trade 2. Nonetheless, the Kelly Criterion is useful primarily for two factors it utilizes: the. The first is attributing probability to a positive outcome of a selected bet and the second is a win-loss calculation. Set all stakes to 0. Place a second bet based upon the Kelly of the remaining capital. xlsx","contentType":"file. The worksheet tracks your bets and provides in-depth performance data as well as a profit graph. The casino is willing to pay 2 to 1 on any bet you make. B – payout on the bet. 9% DD, while the formula got -35% DD in that period and kept more balance than Kelly. 4 The Kelly Criterion 4. Patience. e. 3. 5 (that the probability of both a win and a loss is 50%). where. Suppose you have a table listing the scores of. The Kelly formula or Kelly Criterion as it's often known is a. In this article, we will discuss 5 methods to generate a list based on criteria in Excel. 4 (40% chance of failure). Losses: . The steps to use Kelly Criterion are the following: Step 1: Calculate W. The Kelly criterion is a formula used in estimating the growth of capital, it also calculates the expected value of wealth over a long period of time. Over/Under NBA Betting (looking for 10 pts diff) qualified play = 0. In an independent repeated gambling game with a positive pure income, the Kelly formula assists investors to maximize the growth rate of the principal. Kelly Criterion Excel Spreadsheet. For example, in the screen below, cell F4 contains this formula: = SUM ( SUMIFS (C3:C7,B3:B7,{"red","gold"})) Translation: SUM sales where the color is "red" OR "gold". In the Data Table dialog, click in the Column Input Cell edit box; click on any empty cell outside of the area of your table; and then choose OK. 077 / 0. xlsx","path":"Kelly Bet Calculator. Simulate Wins: . can be applied to determine the optimal sum of money that should. With 1. It functions as an investment scale, balancing the equity between risk and reward. Here are five tips to help you use the Kelly sports betting strategy more effectively. I'm reading the Dhandho Investor by Pabrai. 1 chance of winning - kelly around 0. Currently i risk 2% of capital. Putting it into Practice. W = Historical winning percentage of a trading system. However, in real life this is hardly ever the case that a. The Kelly criterion is not the only mathematical formula for position sizing. The equation tells you exactly how much to bet on each “hand” so that you can survive to keep playing. We must now reduce the list further to. The formulas in the template will automatically do all the hard work for you and produce your Kelly criterion: And in this example (of completely made up numbers) the Kelly criterion is telling us that the optimal position size would be 25. Excel is an extremely powerful program that can be used for various betting related situations and none more so than calculating the Kelly criterion. The Kelly Criterion is to bet a predetermined fraction of assets, and it can seem counterintuitive. The excel template can be downloaded here real_kelly-mutually_exclusive_outcomes-. =COUNTIF (G9:G15, "Pens")+COUNTIF (G9:G15, "Erasers") This counts the number of erasers and pens. We’ll be experimenting with the Kelly criterion formula for a practical example. Therefore, the optimum position size recommended by the Kelly formula would be, the $20,000 equity multiplied by 49%. Kelly Criterion applied to portfolios vs Markowitz MVA. 91= 0. Developed by a scientific researcher John Kelly Jr. . The Kelly criterion can be applied using the formula: K = P x B (1 – P) / B Where K= Kelly %, P= probability of winning B= win to loss ratio Recommended Articles This has been a guide to What is Kelly Criterion. Many people will tell you to bet less than the Kelly formula says to bet. Your odds of winning any one flip are 50/50. The Kelly criterion formula may look complicated, but it is more straightforward than you realize: f = (bp – q) _____ b. 00The Kelly formula is : Kelly % = W – (1-W)/R where: Kelly % = percentage of capital to be put into a single trade. Kelly crashed from 1000 USD to 1 USD, a -99. W = Historical winning percentage of a trading system. 55×1-0. 켈리 자신도 1956년의 논문에서. Usually 1/4, 1/6, or 1/8 until you are in the range where you are betting . This is because for a financial asset there are an infinite number of outcomes to every possible bet that can be. 4. 1: Fig. Let’s use the above formula and apply it in real life example and see how it works. He in fact, suggested the Kelly’s Criterion to help the telecom company with long distance telephone noise issues. . 켈리 자신도 1956년의 논문에서. If I've understood Kelly criterion correctly, if we have wealth W and bet fraction f of wealth on the call option, we buy W f / 8 options, and wealth at option expiry will be W (1 - f) + W f / 8 * max(S-45,0). In contrast,. Cecilia kelly criterion formula for excel. In the same way that "the Kelly strategy" in practice refers to betting a variable fraction of your wealth (even if the simple scenarios used to illustrate/derive the formula involve the same bet repeatedly, so the Kelly strategy is one which implies betting a fixed. The Kelly Criterion If everytime we trade we force ourselves to trade 2. There are some disputes (hence, the number it spit at me suggested something I was. The Kelly Criterion assumes that the purpose of your trade is to maximize your growth of capital. * W = Historical winning percentage of a trading system. 02. Insert the formula =(P*R*(1-P))/R into a blank cell and you get the Kelly criterion as a decimal. Works quite well in many ways, but has serious limitations when used for trading. Which I assume you can not. 5 (50%) chance of happening, so p = q = 0. Kelly)가 1956년에 발표한 공식. In particular, it maximizes the expected growth rate and the median of the terminal wealth. The Kelly bet size is found by maximizing the expected value of the logarithm of wealth, which is equivalent to maximizing the expected geometric growth rate. , the amount of money you will win for. The Kelly Criterion formula allows bettors to maximize profits from a particular bankroll, based on the value the bet holds. Kelly’ Criterion has an interesting background. With this data, our Kelly % would be: Kelly % = 0. By using the Kelly criterion formula, you can make informed decisions about the optimal size of your bets or investments to maximize long-term growth. The function belongs to the category of Dynamic Arrays functions. Utilizzeremo il criterio di Kelly, o strategia di Kelly o formula di Kelly, o puntata di Kelly. Discipline. The Kelly Criterion is a method of management that helps you calculate how much money you might risk on a trade, given the level of volatility in the market. It takes into. Breiman [] and Thorp [] demonstrate that the final wealth of the player W n exceed any fixed bound M when 0 < f < f c, but not for a finite number of trials. Pull up your last 40-60 trades, you may need to ask your broker for this information, or you can refer to past tax returns. Criteria Formula Example Description; Count dates equal to the. 1-p)The Kelly Criterion bet calculator above comes pre-filled with the simplest example: a game of coin flipping stacked in your favor. com. Created in 1956 by a Bell Labs scientist, the Kelly criterion is a formula for sizing bets or. 38912 = 38. The main requirement to getting the biggest profits is you must have the mathematical edge over the house. Excel Formula for Dutch Betting. Firstly, we will combine the INDEX and SMALL functions to do the task. 2. The Kelly Criterion is a famous formula developed by its name-sake John Kelly Jr and is used by many a handicapper and blackjack player. Most only know a simplified version. We develop a general framework to apply the Kelly criterion to the stock market data, and consequently, to portfolio optimization. 100:1 odds 0. Kelly criterion with more than two outcomes. Note, this formula uses COUNTIF twice since there are. The Kelly Criterion is a mathematical formula used in investing and gambling to determine the optimal bet size based on the odds and the probability of winning. the total of pens and erasers in our inventory chart), you may use the following formula. 52, payout_perc=1) # 0. This is the well-known "Kelly Formula" (aka 'Kelly Criterion'), discovered by John Kelly in the 1950’s. on applications of the Kelly criterion in this context, for a review see [2]. Learn how to make high probability bets and make income at the link below"WELCOME20" to get $20 off your first month!Kelly Crite. Has anyone made the Kelly Criterion Formula for excel? Here is the Formula: f*= (bp-q)/b where * f* is the fraction of the current bankroll to wager; * b is the odds received on the wager; * p is the probability of winning; * q is the probability of losing, which is 1 − p Put simply, the Kelly Criterion or Formula is a way to calculate how much of their assets a Forex trader should risk on any given trade in order to maximize the return. Kelly Criterion Staking Method Explained What is the Kelly Criterion formula? The basic Kelly. 71% of your capital, or $57. On the Data tab, in the Sort & Filter group, click Advanced. For reference, the formula and derivation can be found on the wiki. ,Simple Kelly Calculator. 33% of your bank roll, or 8. In this case we bet about 9% of our money on each bet (slightly more for the higher implied. W = Historical winning percentage of a trading system. The Kelly Criterion is comprised of two basic components. 5% of. To determine a game’s variance, we take the. Then you have to drag the formula in cell E4 and update the. Kelly, jr. Kelly, who was a member of a research center at AT&T’s Bells Lab, New Jersey in 1956. . If you have an 80% chance of winning $21 on a $1 bet, and 10% of winning $7. INSTRUCTIONS. Kelly Criterion gambling is especially popular in sports betting and can potentially help you become a successful bettor. Using the same Kelly calculation as before we can now determine the optimum position size for a trade. The Kelly Criterion is basically a mathematical formula that. Calculate the percentage marks secured by each student. Search for jobs related to Kelly criterion formula or hire on the world's largest freelancing marketplace with 22m+ jobs. This figure assumes p=0. 0. Creation of Custom Optimization CriteriaInstead of using the adjusted Kelly criterion for spread/total sports, I focus on the discrepancy between my numbers and the bookmakers’ numbers to determine the weight of my stakes. 00 – 1) p = 0. Full Kelly allocation is achieved when portfolio volatility is equal to the Sharpe ratio of the portfolio. Many well known investors use it, including Warren Buffett and Bill Gross. 1:1 odds 0. e. In Excel 365 - 2007, the COUNT function accepts up to 255 arguments. Calculadora de critério de Kelly é uma ferramenta para encontrar o tamanho ideal do investimento para retornos máximos em investimentos repetidos, quando conhecer as probabilidades e os retornos do investimento. This means if the Kelly Criterion advises a bet at 10% of your bankroll, if you’re using 1/2 Kelly it would be 5%, 1/4 2. q = 0. Simulate Wins: . As I mentioned earlier, the formula is a mainstay of the gambling and investing worlds to help manage risk in asset management. I’ve input the Kelly Formula into Excel, and created a spreadsheet with adjustments. b = the decimal odds – 1. . The essence of the Kelly Criterion lies in making informed decisions that focus on long-term growth rather than relying on guesswork. xls An Excel spreadsheet implementation of the Kelly criterion, including an exponentially-weighted version which gives greater weight to more recent trades. Edge is the expected value of the bet or in this case investment. 99 chance of winning (say this is a corporate bond) -- kelly around 0. 5% and 1/8 1. -10% loss). The Kelly Criterion is a method by which you can used your assessed probability of an event occurring in conjunction with the odds for the event and your bankroll, to work out how much to wager on the event to maximise your value. Excel solver can be used to find the value of h that would have maximised your account balance growth over time. , fair" odds), a gambler can use the knowledge given him by the received symbols to cause his money to grow exponentially. In this formula, P is the payoff, W is the probability of winning, and L is the probability of losing. 62. The Kelly Criterion is a renowned formula created by John Kelly Jr and is cherished by pro handicappers and Blackjack players. 5% and Ralph Vince Optimal f = 0. 5), the equation would look like this: The Kelly Criterion is a formula which accepts known probabilities and payoffs as inputs and outputs the proportion of total wealth to bet in order to achieve the maximum growth rate. Kelly Criterion grants you the ideal percentage to wager per investment/bet to achieve your maximum growth curve based on the probability of winning/losing a. We won’t lie to you. There's a section in it that. 33). 5%. Use criteria as cell value greater than 16 for all cells (B1, C1, D1). The Kelly formula, in essence, aims to answer the. 5. A year ago I mentioned that I use Kelly criterion in my portfolio management and I promised to expand on that. . The framework works for one. In the hope of. egin {aligned} & K\% = W - frac {left (1-W ight )} {R} extbf {where:} &K\% = ext {The Kelly percentage} &W = ext {Winning probability} &R = ext {Win/loss ratio} end. Using the example, click any cell in the range A6:C10. The Kelly criterion or formula will help one understand how to size their investment positions according to one’s edge. blogspot. (Manuscript received March 21, 1956) If the input symbols to a communication channel represent the outcomes of a chance event on which bets are available at odds consistent with their probabilities (i. The formula was derived by J. It was developed in 1956 by John Larry Kelly Jr. Thanks a lot to anyone who'll take the time to read this (great) paper and help me! Liked by: 10-16-2014, 08:58 AM. Following this formula, it’s calculated that you stake 80% of your bankroll on the proposed bet. The generic syntax for SUMIF looks like this: = SUMIF ( range, criteria,[ sum_range]) The SUMIF function takes three arguments. L. , the probability of winning) and your bankroll (i. What is the Kelly Criterion? In a nutshell, the Kelly Criterion is nothing more than a mathematical formula that calculates what percentage of your funds should be allocated to a particular bet (or investment). The most popular methodology for determining the optimal wager size is the Kelly Criterion. The Kelly Criterion is a method of management that helps you calculate how much money you might risk on a trade, given the level of volatility in the market. Download Kelly Criterion Formula Excel Spreadsheet pdf. the market, lazy man’s gambling at its finest. input 0. Created in 1956 by John Kelly, a Bell Labs scientist, the Kelly criterion is a formula for sizing bets or investments from which the investor expects a positive return. 5 units; Spreads: 5 pts spread diff = 1 unit; 5. The equation tells you exactly how much to bet on each “hand” so that you can survive to keep playing. Following this formula, it’s calculated that you stake 80% of your bankroll on the proposed bet. Chapter 4 concludes and sums up. betting $10, on win, rewards $14, including the bet; then b=0. There are two basic components to the Kelly Criterion. 67, which is all that’s needed to use the Kelly formula: 75% - 25%/0. Here p s is the fraction of wins that in the long run tends to p. The Kelly Criterion is a formula that helps determine optimal bet sizes. 5 – 6 pts spread diff = 1. Itispossible. Extending Kelly a bit further (like Ed Thorp, author of two math bibles for the investor/bettor Beat the Dealer and Beat the Market, has done) we can do a bit of hand-waving and make it work for the stock market. The Kelly Formula (or Kelly Criterion) determines mathematically optimal distributions in order to maximize long-term portfolio performance, taking into account the likelihood of investment success compared to the. , which relates to the long-term growth of capital. the Kelly Criterion to the stock market. The underlying mathematical formula is: x = (yp – q) / y; where x is the fraction of. Assuming the anticipated wager has odds of 3. The Kelly Criterion is a mathematical formula used to calculate the optimal size of a series of bets in order to maximize your long-term profits. As explained here, the formula to claculate the Kelly stake is: (BP-Q)/B Where B is the odds you are getting -1 (because we're using decimal odds), P is the likelihood of the bet winning and Q is the probability of losing (or 1 – P). One of the easiest mistakes to make. Some derivations of "Stock Market Kelly" involve using back-looking numbers such beta to. Developed by John Larry Kelly Jr. This long, but easy, formula is how the Kelly Calculator creates its results: ((Decimal Odds – 1) * Decimal Winning Percentage – (1 – Winning Percentage)) / (Decimal Odds – 1) *. 890. The Kelly Criterion tells you the position sizes you should be taking on your next trade. Learn the basics of COUNTIF function in Excel. Kelly himself was an interesting character: a chain smoking Texan who used to be a fighter pilot in the Navy during World War 2, he was also brilliant. We will present some useful formulas and methods to answer various natural questions about it that arise in blackjack and other gambling games. 5 if you want to wager 50% of the stake recommended by the Kelly. 04 multiplied by 0. Edward O. The more there are, the better. Moneyline odds given the criterion formula spreadsheet calculates the wager Creating a plan when i realized that the formula does it is not a return. It can seem counterintuitive in real time. Kelly came up with a betting system which optimizes bankroll growth based upon known odds and a definite payout. * R = Historical Average Win/Loss ratio. Whether you are a casual bettor or a professional gambler, one of the most important tools you can use to increase your. Revisiting the Kelly Criterion Part 2: Fractional Kelly Another common complaint about the Kelly Criterion is how to manage multiple edges on concurrent bets. All will be explained. Grazie ad una formula riusciremo quanta quota del capitale. There are two key components to the formula for the Kelly criterion: Winning probability factor (W): the probability a trade will have a positive return. 5 edge, the recommended Kelly’s criterion bet is 33% of your bank roll. 59 minus 0. It accepts known probabilities and payoffs as inputs and returns the proportion of total wealth to bet for maximum growth. The Kelly Criterion is a model for long-term growth rate. The sum of positive trade amounts divided by the sum of negative trade amounts. 1 chance of winning -- kelly & net odds around 0. Kelly Jr, a researcher at Bell Labs, in 1956. 5%. Kelly)가 1956년에 발표한 공식. Here’s the Kelly Criterion formula and how you can use it for your own sports investing: Where, F = How much you should bet; B = Decimal. Default and up a spreadsheetMany bettors determine a proper stake using the Kelly Criterion. The Kelly bet size is found by maximizing the expected value of the logarithm of wealth, which is equivalent to maximizing the expected geometric growth rate. The Kelly Criterion is a relatively simple math equation to determine the percentage of your bankroll you should bet on any given circumstance, assuming you have an advantage. Kelly developed the formula while working at the AT&T Bell Laboratory. Use the Right Formula. In essence, the Kelly Criterion calculates the proportion of your own funds to bet on an outcome whose odds are higher than expected, so that your own funds grow exponentially. where: K – optimal % risk. To use the kelly criterion reasonably in trading you will need to follow these steps: Access at least one sample of one hundred trades you have executed. a. at Bell Labs in 1956, the Kelly criterion formula has long been established to provide a potent equation to calculate the optimum level of risk for placing a bet in a probabilistic types game like sports betting or blackjack. 67 = 37. 50)-1)/ (2. To show the steps of the calculation and to ensure that it's doing what we're expecting it to, we've. In this case, the Kelly criterion betting strategy suggests that if you wager over 20% of your bank continuously on 1, 2. Football betting stats & predictions | OddsWizz. Choosing optimization criterion for Expert Advisor. the growth-optimal strategy, the capital growth criterion, etc. In the formula, the symbol a represents the player’s edge, and the symbol v represents the game’s variance. To calculate the optimal bet size use Kelly's criterion . The Kelly formula or criterion is best known as a bet optimisation tool. Let’s say you have a bankroll of $1,000. The basic formula for the Kelly Criterion is given by: -> f^* is the optimal fraction of the bankroll to bet; -> b is the net odds received on the wager (i. It was proposed by John Kelly in the 50’s who at that point was working for AT&T’s Bell Laboratories. 55), and a half Kelly (0. Works best when used in retrospect. Imagine we have a trading system with a win rate of 65%. Kelly, Jr. 50. It's free to sign up and bid on jobs. Parameters: win_p: float, probability of winning. Kelly Criterion Example. f* is the fraction of the current wealth to bet (expressed in fraction), b is the net odds received on the bet (e. b = the decimal odds – 1. Kelly criterion allows you find out the fraction f* of your bankroll that you should bet if the odds of a bet and the probability of its success are known such as to maximize the logarithmic growth rate of your account. Unlike our standard Excel betting tracker, this worksheet calculates recommended stakes using. 077 / 0. The reason is because in order for the. q = 0. Criteria can include. So with this edge the formula says to risk over a third of. If we let q=1−p, then interestingly, the Kelly criterion recommends that the bettor only bets (f > 0) if the bettor has an edge, that is. The Kelly Criterion is a formula to determine the proper size of a bet with known odds and a definite payout. Step – 2: Calculate the probability of each outcome. g. When we bet the amount that this formula indicates, we say that we are using the full Kelly Criterion . L. The formula for the Kelly Criterion can be seen in the image above. It's free to sign up and bid on jobs. q = (1 – 0. Average these for 14 days, and you get the average true range. Kelly, Jr and since then has been a strategy used in betting to determine the amount individuals should stake. Kelly's criterion whereOpen a new Excel spreadsheet and create the following headers: Betting Bankroll, Kelly Staking Fraction, 1 (outcome 1), 2 (outcome 2), Odds 1, Odds 2, Probability of 1, Probability of 2, Kelly Stake 1 and Kelly Stake 2. 0% of similar occasions, you would expect to gain $99. The problem with this is that KC completely upends this. Let’s look at a few: Example 1: Let’s say you flip a normal coin. Example: We have 3 independent bets. Then click the centre align button to ensure all data is displayed in the centre of their cells. In the same cell, now write the percentage formula as below. 50) =. 0 sperando che possa essere utile per realizzare un profitto ed andare a cassa. Kelly criterion mathematical formula. The Kelly Criterion is comprised of two basic components. In contrast, ruin is going to happen almost surely if f > f c. Where value1, value2, etc. The Kelly criterion, developed by John L. 25The Kelly Criterion Formula is a mathematical strategy used to determine the optimal size of a series of bets. The generic formula of Excel IF with two or more conditions is this: IF (AND ( condition1, condition2,. It's a great idea, but it might need some tweaks (or maybe I did it wrong, Iono?!) Edit: I looked up Kelly Criterion on Wikipedia and learned that this long-term 'system' to maximize your bets. The Kelly bet size is found by maximizing the expected geometric growth rate. Inventory. Download Kelly Criterion Formula Excel Spreadsheet doc. 67 = 37. xlsx","contentType":"file. This formula determines the optimal % of your account that you can bet to get the most profitable outcome in the long run. (For example, if you have a 40% win rate, then enter the number "40", not 0. The Kelly Criterion (a. If a fully Kelly stake was 8%, then the half-, quarter- and eighth-Kelly stakes would be 4%, 2% and 1% respectively. ‘MY_ODDS’ is what you consider to be the fair odds. Make sure that all other workbooks are closed, because otherwise, the next few steps could take a LONG time. 60 – 0. Calculate the relationship between risk and return R. The formula has a number of applications, one of which is sports betting. Your 'odds offered' are '2 to 1' (so enter 2 ). 0) than a 5% edge at 1/3 (1. with constant bets. 00, with a winning probability of 0. The formula was derived by J. . I was thinking of creating a spreadsheet to help me at the track but why do that if someone already has this. I risk 2k. Image source: Getty Images. Kelly can be murder during. However, it can be complicated to use if you are not used to it. Even if you have a model, the model is still an estimation and is not as accurate as these known outcomes. Object moved to here. Thus the Kelly leverage says that for a 100,000 USD portfolio we should borrow an additional 401,000 USD to have a total portfolio value of 501,000 USD. , There's a section in it that uses the Kelly Formula. 41, divided by 4. The Kelly Criterion is well-known among gamblers as a way to decide how much to bet when the odds are in your favor. f = The percentage of your bankroll to wager; b = The odds in decimals – 1; q = Losing probability which is (1 – p) p = Winning probability; Below are three examples of how to use Kelly.